Growth and Thoughts about Real Estate

Wages and Inflation

The latest report from payroll processing company ADP showed that the US added 184,000 jobs in February, way above forecasts. Even more worryingly (for inflation), the % wage growth for job "changers" leapt from +7.6% YoY to +10.0% YoY - the highest figure since July 2023. The very important BLS job number for February will come out today (4/5), with roughly 200,000 new jobs expected.

Under and Over

It has been a real tug-of-war in the bond and mortgage market. Over the last week, the "higher [rates] for longer" team has been winning, with strong jobs data and "we're in no rush to cut" commentary from Fed members helping to send average 30-yr mortgage rates back above 7%. The residential real estate market, meanwhile, seems to be shrugging higher rates off. [Mortgage News Daily]

Prices Spring Forward Early

After two months of slight (0.1% month-over-month) decreases, CoreLogic's national Home Price Index jumped 0.7% MoM in February, way above their own expectations. CoreLogic now expects +3.1% price growth over the next 12 months. A few months ago, they were only looking for +2.5%. The spring selling season is basically here. Are you ready? [CoreLogic, S&P Global]

Around the Neighborhood

Will stubbornly high mortgage rates hurt the spring selling season for the second-straight year? The latest new and existing home sales data suggest that buyers are taking advantage of increased inventory - and in some markets, lower prices - to act on purchases that they may have deferred for sever

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